Guymon, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

162
FXUS64 KAMA 191754
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1254 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- Very hot conditions are forecast through Saturday with record
  breaking highs expected.

- Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Saturday and
  possibly again on Sunday due to breezy to gusty winds and dry
  conditions.

- Cooler temperatures are expected late this weekend into Monday
  with a warming trend resuming in the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The center of a very strong ridge of high pressure is currently
located over Arizona and will remain there through the short term
forecast period. With hardly any change in the upper level pattern,
the weather across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles will remain
pretty much unchanged through at least tomorrow. Highs both today
and tomorrow will be very hot, with temperatures in the 80s to
low 90s. Even though relative humidity values will be very dry
both afternoons, winds will remain around 10-15 mph or less so
critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for either of
these days. Overnight lows will also be quite warm and record warm
lows may be broken if temperatures only bottom out in the mid to
upper 50s.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The H500 high pressure system will start to move southeast and
weaken this weekend. As this occurs, the upper level pattern should
switch to zonal flow to start the next work week. Before the ridge
breaks down, the center axis moves over the Panhandles on Saturday
which will aid in leading to increasing WAA over the region.
Saturday is forecast to be the hottest day this week, with
widespread highs in the mid to upper 90s and some areas may even
reach 100 degrees for the first time this year. Southwest
downsloping winds will also aid in bringing in drier air and leading
to the likely record breaking highs. In fact, the highs on Saturday
may break the all time record high for March at the climate sites.
With the very hot conditions, breezy southwest winds, and very dry
conditions, critical fire weather is forecast for Saturday afternoon.

As mentioned above, the ridge breaks down on Sunday and the pattern
favors a cold front propelling south across the Plains Saturday
night into Sunday. Model guidance still remains very indecisive on
the timing of the front. Given the strength of the cold air push
behind the front, I would lean towards the faster frontal
progression which has the front south of the Panhandles by mid day
on Sunday. This difference is leading to a wide range of
potential highs on Sunday but in general, temperatures should drop
throughout the day once the front passes through. Winds behind
the front will be strong out of the north and gusts of 40 mph or
greater will be possible. Another day of critical fire weather may
occur on Sunday. The cooler temperatures should last into Monday
before a warming trend resumes Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Mostly clear
skies are expected along with variable winds around 10-15 kts or
less.

Muscha

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for Saturday across
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Very hot conditions are
expected during the afternoon with highs reaching the mid to upper
90s and some locations may even reach the triple digit mark for
the first time this year. Winds are forecast to be out of the
southwest around 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph during the
afternoon. The southwest winds will usher in drier air which will
lead to relative humidity values dropping down to around 4-7
percent by peak heating Saturday afternoon. These conditions will
lead to Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI) values up to 4-5.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05