Guymon, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

922
FXUS64 KAMA 190417
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1117 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible across the central and northern
Panhandles Saturday afternoon and evening. A few storm may become
strong to severe with the primary hazards being large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

- Thunderstorms will be possible on a nightly basis from Sunday
through Thursday.

- Widespread upper-90s to mid-100 degree temperatures return to the
Panhandles on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Thunderstorms, some of which strong to severe with heavy rain, are
expected to continue through tonight and perhaps linger shortly
after sunrise on Friday. Clouds are expected to linger through
Friday morning and into the afternoon hours before starting to break
up. Thunderstorms are favored to develop in the higher terrain in
New Mexico and will at least try to work east with some decent
steering flow aloft. However, their ability to survive into the
Panhandles will depend on the quality of destabilization that can
occur. The NBM gives 20-30% PoPs in the eastern Panhandles in the
evening, but that is highly uncertain; there is very weak forcing
aloft, not much (if any) source for lift from the surface, and also
greatly depends on sufficient destabilization occurring.

Saturday, a shortwave trough will traverse from the West Coast into
the Intermountain West, with 20-40 kt 500mb winds and 40-60 kt 300mb
winds overspreading the central and northern Panhandles.
Temperatures will warm into the 90s area-wide along with dew points
in the 60s. 700mb winds will turn southwesterly and strengthen
slightly through the day which will tap into a reservoir of deeper
moisture present across south Texas and Mexico. This, along with
steep low- and mid-level lapse rates, will set the stage for
moderate instability coupled with sufficient wind shear for
thunderstorm organization. A subtle perturbation in the jet stream
is favored to clip the northern Panhandles in the mid/late afternoon
hours. A few thunderstorms will be possible across the central and
northern Panhandles, and they will have the potential to become
strong to severe. Forecast soundings indicate 2000-3000 J/kg of
MLCAPE with 35-40 kts of effective shear with enough directional
shear for rotating updrafts. Thus, the storm more is favored to be
supercellular at least initially. The number of storms in the CWA is
very much in question, but given that the Panhandles will be on the
periphery of the stronger forcing, we shouldn`t see extensive
thunderstorm coverage. This should decrease the likelihood of
developing line segments, but cannot entirely rule it out if the
initial development becomes outflow dominant quickly. Hail in excess
of 2" in diameter and at least 60 mph wind gusts will be possible
with any severe thunderstorm. If a supercell can remain discrete
after 6 PM, won`t entirely rule out a low-end tornado threat as LCLs
lower and low-level wind shear increases as the low-level jet
strengthens. Thunderstorm activity should weaken by Midnight.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Sunday, the Panhandles will be sandwiched between an upper-level
ridge over northwestern Mexico and a shortwave trough over the
Plains. A surface low is favored to track out of Colorado, into the
northern Panhandles, and continue eastward Sunday morning. This will
draw moisture eastward out of the Panhandles as a cold front moves
in from the north. There is quite a bit of disagreement among model
guidance revolving around the cold front; timing and how far
southwest the front pushes. This leads to high uncertainty in the
high temperatures for Sunday, but it should be a dry day. Embedded
mid-level vorticity is favored to move into the Panhandles Sunday
evening. Rain and thunderstorms will be possible, but it will depend
on the availability of mid-level moisture; it looks as though some
dry air aloft could still be lingering which would make it difficult
for sustained activity.

As the shortwave trough moves off to the east on Monday, the upper-
level ridge over northwestern Mexico will be able to build northward
into the Southwest US. This will cause upper-level winds to turn
northwesterly over the Panhandles. Mid-level moisture may be able to
advect into the Panhandles throughout Monday, and we could see
thunderstorms develop in the high terrain of New Mexico and Colorado
and eventually work into the Panhandles late in the day. These
storms will have the potential to become strong to severe, but
specific details are too uncertain to discuss at this time.

This northwesterly flow regime is favored to remain through the
remainder of this long-term period. If this comes to fruition, then
we can expect nocturnal thunderstorm chances each night with the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. Often
in such cases, we will see a night that is dry because the
atmosphere was unable to recover from previous nights` activity.
However, it`s far too early to determine which day that might be,
and will certainly support PoPs each night at this time.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

MVFR ceilings are ongoing at all terminals and is expected to
continue through Friday morning and into Friday afternoon.
Amarillo is favored to enter into IFR or perhaps even LIFR later
tonight through this morning. Otherwise, cannot rule out a
thunderstorm for Amarillo tonight but chances are too low to
include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52